For most of us game theory sounds like some play stuff
rather than a serious intellectual science. But the fact that it is something
way beyond games and mere empirical estimation is reflected through its
extensive use in USA’s controversial anti terror security program the- PRISM.
The basic function that the PRISM performs is to accumulate data from numerous
data sources sometimes obtained from spying over the internet and keeping a
watch on almost everything and everyone which is then fed to a game theory
based algorithm that outputs the potential threat zones, Seems like a novel
life saving scheme but peeping into embassies and personnel lives has gone
wrong and there came the entire Snowden episode.
Game theory estimates the chances of occurrence of an event
based on the fact that everyone involved will work for their maximum profit and
as long as the parties involved are rational the estimation doesn’t go wrong.
Ask Bueno de mesquita the man who works for US government and successfully
predicted many political events. Everything is done mathematically and every
party involved is given a number according to its say and expected favor. Some
matrix or algorithm gives the output which suggests the expected outcome. And
interestingly in a significant number of cases the estimation comes out to be
correct.
This theory has varied fields of applications like trade,
economics, diplomacy, biology etc.
Many companies hire professionals of this field to estimate
the quotation they should put on, to snap a tender. The use of this method is
swelling up in other related corporate fields including bidding and auctions.
Wherever there is competition there is a room for game theory.
An important sub-discipline of economics ‘the behavioral
economics’ uses game theory as a tool. Behavioral economics fundamentally deals
with behavior of concerned parties that tend to affect their monetary/economic
decisions. Everything like procrastination is kept in mind in this particular
approach. So without any surprise a great number of Nobel Prize winners in
economics are associated with game theory.
Have you seen the popular movie “a beautiful mind” based
on Nobel laureate John Nash? ...well Nash is a game theorists and his theory
that won him the Nobel the Nash Equilibrium was an important work of game
theory.
Mesquita has written many books including a recent one
called “the predictioneers game” on
the aspects of this theory by which one can prophesize the future. He has made
some very interesting predictions also!
No comments:
Post a Comment